Weekly Update 9/30/12: Live Trading AUD/NZD with the Arb Trader Application & Update on New Features

I’m a few weeks behind on updating the results of the strategy as I prepared a presentation for the JavaOne conference which took place this past week.  In the meantime, the AUD/NZD version of the strategy has taken a serious beating, erasing almost all the gains since the system started trading in March. The strategy was also stopped out during the week when it hit its 100 pip stop loss.  When this event happens all other strategies will cease trading as well (EUR/DKK), until manually started again.  This is to ensure that some crazy event doesn’t take all the other strategies down with it.

This week’s number are below. All results include commission.

Week of 9/30/12

	AUD/NZD	EUR/DKK
# of Trades	18	14
Winning Trades	61.1%	85.7%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	-10.33	+1.18
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	-185.9	+16.5

Total since inception

	AUD/NZD*	EUR/DKK**
# of Trades	485	156
Winning Trades	77.3%	87.8%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	+0.04	+0.79
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	+20.3	+123.7

* 3/11/12
** 7/22/12

Due to the large drawdown that the AUD/NZD strategy is experiencing, I have implemented an equity curve filter on the strategy so that it remains out of the market until performance improves.  An equity curve filter takes the average cumulative gain/loss over the last 100 trades, and compares it to the current gain/loss amount of the strategy.  If the current amount is less than the average, then the system stays out of the market.  Below is a chart showing the current equity curve in blue, and the 100 trade average in red.  The y-axis units are number of ticks the strategy has made/lost.  As you can see the current equity curve in blue has fallen well below its 100 trade average.

 

 

Update on Progress of the Arb Trader Application

Currency Strategy

Upcoming bug fixes and new features

• ArbTrader now has the ability to add multiple accounts and data providers, whereas previously, everything was hardcoded.
• A JavaFX chart component now has been added to the application, which I will be adding the graph (above) to the AUD/NZD strategy tab.

End-of-Day ETF arb strategy

No updates are planned for this strategy this week.

Intraday ETF arb strategy

• Continue monitoring 4 pairs in the paper trade account.

Twitter: @LimitUpTrading
Twitter: @RobTerp

Weekly Update 9/9/12: Live Trading AUD/NZD with the Arb Trader Application & Update on New Features

Once again, I’m running a week behind on publishing the results of last week’s trading..
Both strategies had a down week, with AUD/NZD continuing its losing streak with a 10 tick loss, and EUR/DKK snapping its winning streak with an 18 tick loss for the week. As a result of the AUD/NZD losses, I’ve pared back its position sizes by nearly half until I can add a filter that will keep the system out of the market when conditions are not favorable.

This week’s number are below. All results include commission.

Week of 9/9/12

	AUD/NZD	EUR/DKK
# of Trades	18	12
Winning Trades	77.8%	75.0%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	-0.57	-1.48
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	-10.3	-17.8

Total since inception

	AUD/NZD*	EUR/DKK**
# of Trades	448	127
Winning Trades	78.3%	88.1%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	+0.45	+0.80
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	+203.1	+101.3

* 3/11/12
** 7/22/12

Update on Progress of the Arb Trader Application

Currency Strategy

Upcoming bug fixes and new features

• Add ability to configure multiple IB accounts and new currency pairs rather than having to hard code them in the application
• Look at implementing an equity curve filter so that when the system encounters a large string of losses the system will be switched off until the equity curve reestablishes an upward climb.

End-of-Day ETF arb strategy

No updates are planned for this strategy this week.

Intraday ETF arb strategy

• Continue monitoring 4 pairs in the paper trade account.

 

Twitter: @LimitUpTrading
Twitter: @RobTerp

Weekly Update 9/2/12: Live Trading AUD/NZD with the Arb Trader Application & Update on New Features

I’m running a little behind on publishing the results of last week’s trading once again. AUD/NZD had another another losing week dropping about 20 ticks while EUR/DKK had another strong week adding 23 ticks.

This week’s number are below. All results include commission.

Week of 9/2/12

	AUD/NZD	EUR/DKK
# of Trades	21	20
Winning Trades	76.2%	95.0%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	-0.97	+1.16
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	-20.4	+23.2

Total since inception

	AUD/NZD*	EUR/DKK**
# of Trades	430	115
Winning Trades	78.3%	89.6%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	+049	+1.04
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	+213.4	+119.1

* 3/11/12
** 7/22/12

Update on Progress of the Arb Trader Application

Currency Strategy

Upcoming bug fixes and new features

• Add ability to configure multiple IB accounts and new currency pairs rather than having to hard code them in the application
• I will begin work with revamping the user interface for this strategy which will include adding some JavaFX components including real-time charts.
• Look at implementing an equity curve filter so that when the system encounters a large string of losses the system will be switched off until the equity curve reestablishes an upward climb.

End-of-Day ETF arb strategy

No updates are planned for this strategy this week.

Intraday ETF arb strategy

• Continue monitoring 4 pairs in the paper trade account.

Twitter: @LimitUpTrading
Twitter: @RobTerp

Weekly Update 8/26/12: Live Trading AUD/NZD with the Arb Trader Application & Update on New Features

I’m running a little behind on publishing the results of last week’s trading.  AUD/NZD had another rough week this week with a loss of nearly 95 ticks.  USD/SGD and HKD/JPY both had small losses for the week and will be dropped from trading beginning this week.  EUR/DKK had another great week with a gain of 36.7 ticks.

This week’s number are below. All results include commission.

Week of 8/26/12

	AUD/NZD	USD/SGD	HKD/JPY	EUR/DKK
# of Trades	14	12	14	24
Winning Trades	71.4%	83.3%	71.4%	91.7%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	-6.74	-1.03	-0.01	+1.53
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	-94.3	-12.3	-0.1	+36.7

Total since inception

	AUD/NZD*	USD/SGD**	HKD/JPY**	EUR/DKK**
# of Trades	401	97	76	95
Winning Trades	78.5%	79.4%	75.0%	88.4%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	+0.57	-0.72	-0.01	+1.01
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	+233.8	-69.8	-7.6	+95.9

* 3/11/12
** 7/22/12

Update on Progress of the Arb Trader Application

Currency Strategy

This week I will be working on the following bug fixes

• . USD/SGD and HKY/JPY will be dropped from trading
• I will begin work with revamping the user interface for this strategy which will include adding some JavaFX components including real-time charts.
• Look at implementing an equity curve filter so that when the system encounters a large string of losses the system will be switched off until the equity curve reestablishes an upward climb.

End-of-Day ETF arb strategy

No updates are planned for this strategy this week.

Intraday ETF arb strategy

• Continue monitoring 4 pairs in the paper trade account.

 

Twitter: @LimitUpTrading
Twitter: @RobTerp

Weekly Update 8/19/12: Live Trading AUD/NZD with the Arb Trader Application & Update on New Features

As mentioned in a previous post, issues with the IB Gateway this week caused the system to miss about 3 trading opportunities that would have proved to be profitable early Thursday morning.  Regardless however both the EUR/DKK and AUD/NZD strategies had a great week, tallying up 30.5 and 59.2 ticks respectively, while the  USD/SGD had a rough week with a loss of about 30 ticks.

This week’s number are below. All results include commission.

Week of 8/19/12

	AUD/NZD	USD/SGD	HKD/JPY	EUR/DKK
# of Trades	19	18	15	17
Winning Trades	94.7%	77.8%	80.0%	94.1%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	+3.12	-1.69	-0.26	+1.79
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	-59.2	-30.5	-3.90	+30.5

Total since inception

	AUD/NZD*	USD/SGD**	HKD/JPY**	EUR/DKK**
# of Trades	395	85	62	71
Winning Trades	78.7%	78.8%	75.8%	87.3%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	+0.83	-0.68	-0.12	+0.83
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	+328.1	-57.5	-7.50	+59.2

* 3/11/12
** 7/22/12

 

Update on Progress of the Arb Trader Application

Currency Strategy

This week I will be working on the following bug fixes

• . This will likely be the last week that the USD/SGD pair is traded.  Historical backtest results weren’t great, but I wanted to see how the pair performed in actual trading.  Live trading results look to be about in line with backtest results
• I will begin work with revamping the user interface for this strategy which will include adding some JavaFX components including real-time charts

End-of-Day ETF arb strategy

No updates are planned for this strategy this week.

 

Intraday ETF arb strategy

• I will be adding an additional 2 pairs to this strategy running in the paper trade account.

 

Twitter: @LimitUpTrading
Twitter: @RobTerp

Weekly Update 8/12/12: Live Trading AUD/NZD with the Arb Trader Application & Update on New Features

This past week was mixed with the AUD/NZD strategy taking the biggest hit with a loss of -60 ticks.  HKD/JPY and USD/SGD edge out a few ticks of profit and the EUR/DKK pair had a solid week with a gain of more than 14 ticks.

This week’s number are below. All results include commission.

Week of 8/12/12

	AUD/NZD	USD/SGD	HKD/JPY	EUR/DKK
# of Trades	17	12	5	11
Winning Trades	82.4%	83.3%	100.0%	91.0%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	-3.53	+0.25	+0.61	+0.91
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	-60.0	+3.0	+3.1	+14.6

Total since inception

	AUD/NZD*	USD/SGD**	HKD/JPY**	EUR/DKK**
# of Trades	376	67	47	54
Winning Trades	77.9%	79.1%	74.5%	85.2%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	+0.71	-0.40	-0.08	+0.53
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	+268.9	-27.0	-3.6	+28.7

* 3/11/12
** 7/22/12

 

Update on Progress of the Arb Trader Application

Currency Strategy

This week I will be working on the following bug fixes/features

• Issue with ArbTrader’s real-time bar engine firing events a few seconds too early has been fixed and deployed to production this week.  This bug was causing “duplicate order ID” errors, which in turn was preventing entry orders from being submitted to TWS.
• Ability to dynamically create new connection to a quote data source.  Currently the app is hard coded to talk to either my live or paper trade account and needs to be recompiled when switching between the two.

End-of-Day ETF arb strategy

No updates are planned for this strategy this week.

 

Intraday ETF arb strategy

• This week will continue testing and collecting data for 3 pairs.
• Develop a method to filter data spikes in order to generate reliable trading signals.  I’ve noticed some occasional spikes in the bid and/or ask, which, when the strategy places an order, it isn’t getting filled at those prices.  The ArbTrader needs a way to filter this data in order to generate signals which have a higher probability of profit.

Twitter: @LimitUpTrading
Twitter: @RobTerp

Weekly Update 8/5/12: Live Trading AUD/NZD with the Arb Trader Application & Update on New Features

This past week closed out with small loses for all pairs except for EUR/DKK which closed up a couple of ticks.

This week’s number are below. All results include commission.

Week of 8/5/12

	AUD/NZD	USD/SGD	HKD/JPY	EUR/DKK
# of Trades	16	13	17	14
Winning Trades	68.9%	69.2%	76.4%	85.7%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	-0.28	-0.10	-0.08	+0.15
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	-4.5	-1.3	-1.41	+2.1

Total since inception

	AUD/NZD*	USD/SGD**	HKD/JPY**	EUR/DKK**
# of Trades	359	54	42	43
Winning Trades	77.7%	77.8%	71.4%	83.7%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	+0.92	-0.60	-0.16	+0.32
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	+328.9	-32.2	-6.7	+14.1

* 3/11/12
** 7/22/12

Update on Progress of the Arb Trader Application

Currency Strategy

This week I will be working on the following bug fixes

• My real-time bar API that is generating hourly bars is firing events at 59 minutes past the hour, rather than right on the hour.  This is causing issues at 2PM PDT when IdealPro closes for 15 minutes
• Stop prices:  In some instances the stop price for a pair was set to the entry price and the position was immediately stopped out.
• IB is throwing “Duplicate Order ID” errors.  I believe this is tied to the fact that the system is sending new orders just before IdealPro closes.

End-of-Day ETF arb strategy

No updates are planned for this strategy this week.

Intraday ETF arb strategy

• I’ve added 2 more pairs to this strategy and have modified the strategy to collect bid/ask data for each of the pairs.  This is still running in the paper trade account.
• This week will continue testing for the 3 pairs.

 

Twitter: @LimitUpTrading
Twitter: @RobTerp

Weekly Update 7/29/12: Live Trading AUD/NZD with the Arb Trader Application & Update on New Features

This was a pretty good week for the AUD/NZD and USD/SGD pairs, both posting a nice gain of around 40 ticks each.  The HKD/JPY and EUR/DKK pairs didn’t fare so well however, both posting moderate losses on the week.  I should mention that the only other pair other than AUD/NZD that performed well in backtests was EUR/DKK.  No data was available through TradeStation to test HKD/JPY and USD/SGD did not backtest well, however I still wanted to see how it would perform in live trading.

This weeks number are below.  All results include commission.

Week of 7/29/12

	AUD/NZD	USD/SGD	HKD/JPY	EUR/DKK
# of Trades	18	23	12	13
Winning Trades	88.8%	87.0%	58.3%	76.9%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	+2.33	+1.73	-0.51	-1.15
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	+40.3	+39.7	-6.2	-14.9

Total since inception

	AUD/NZD*	USD/SGD**	HKD/JPY**	EUR/DKK**
# of Trades	343	41	25	29
Winning Trades	78.1%	80.5%	68.0%	82.8%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	+0.97	-0.75	-0.21	+0.41
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	+333.4	-30.9	-5.3	+12.0

* 3/11/12
** 7/22/12

Update on Progress of the Arb Trader Application

Currency Strategy

This week I will be moving to live trading the following features/bugfixes.

• Bugfix for date/time comparisons that was preventing the system from starting.  The system is off beginning Friday at 14:15 until Sunday 15:00.  The bug caused the system to not place any new entry orders.

End-of-Day ETF arb strategy

No updates are planned for this strategy this week.

Intraday ETF arb strategy

Initial testing has started for this strategy in the paper trade account and is currently trading one pair.

 

Twitter: @LimitUpTrading
Twitter: @RobTerp

Weekly Update 7/22/12: Live Trading AUD/NZD with the Arb Trader Application & Update on New Features

Live by the sword, die by the sword.  The AUD/NZD strategy took a bit hit this week losing 114 ticks.  I was on the wrong end of a bad fill this week.  IdealPro (currency exchange venue IB uses) is supposed to be closed from 14:00 to 14:15 each day.  I was filled on a order at 14:01 when the price spiked down.  I contracted IB and asked how I was filled AFTER the market was supposedly closed.  They explained that the IdealPro ‘closed’ time is like a rolling shutdown where each bank that acts as a market maker will begin their shutdown period starting at 14:00, but some banks may still be online for a few minutes.  So basically, liquidity disappears starting at 14:00 until all banks are offline.

This is the first week that I also begin trading EUR/DKK, HKD/JPY, and USD/SGD with minimal position sizes in the live account to see how they perform.  All results include commission.

Week of 7/15/12

	AUD/NZD	USD/SGD	HKD/JPY	EUR/DKK
# of Trades	17	18	13	16
Winning Trades	76.5%	72.2%	76.9%	87.5%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	-6.71	-3.92	+0.07	+1.68
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	-114	-70.6	+0.90	+26.9

 

Total since inception

	AUD/NZD*	USD/SGD**	HKD/JPY**	EUR/DKK**
# of Trades	325	18	13	16
Winning Trades	77.5%	72.2%	76.9%	87.5%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	+0.90	-3.92	+0.07	+1.68
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	+293.1	-70.6	+0.90	+26.9

* 3/11/12
** 7/22/12

 

Update on Progress of the Arb Trader Application

Currency Strategy

This week I will be moving to live trading the following features/bugfixes.

• Ensure that all orders are cancelled by the IdealPro close time of 14:00, and resubmitted by the 14:15 open time.
• Make sure trades placed on Sunday evening have the correct parameters based ONLY on Sunday’s hourly prices, and not on Friday’s
• Add timestamp to output that is displayed in the app’s text area.

End-of-Day ETF arb strategy

This strategy has closed 1 round turn trade at this point.  The strategy takes its positions near the close of the market.  It begins looking for entry/exit signals 1 minute before the market closes.  I will be taking this value down to 15 seconds before the market closes instead

Twitter: @LimitUpTrading
Twitter: @RobTerp

Weekly Update 7/15/12: Live Trading AUD/NZD with the Arb Trader Application & Update on New Features

The AUD/NZD strategy closed another positive week, but only because of a fill that the system received near the close of trading where the market spiked up more than 60 ticks and dropped right back down in a matter of seconds.  I was fully expecting a call by Interactive Brokers telling me the trade was going to be busted, but no such call came and the strategy ended up profiting about 50 ticks on the trade.  All results below include commission.

Week of 7/15/12

	AUD/NZD 60-minute
# of Trades	14
Winning Trades	64.3%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	+1.04
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	+14.6

Total since 3/11/12

	AUD/NZD 60-minute
# of Trades	308
Winning Trades	77.6%
Avg. Trade (Ticks)	+1.31
Total Profit/Loss (Ticks)	+407.1

 

Update on Progress of the Arb Trader Application

 

 

Currency Strategy

As of this week the Arb Trader is no longer relying on Trade Station to generate trades for the AUD/NZD strategy.  Modifications have been completed to have the strategy generate its own entry/exit orders.  In addition to this I’ve also added the following three currency pairs and will begin trading them this week in test mode, which means with minimal position sizes in the live account.:

• HKD/JPY
• EUR/DKK
• USD/SGD

 

End-of-Day ETF arb strategy

I’ve completed the end-of-day ETF arb strategy and will begin trading it in my live account as well with minimal position sizes.  This strategy will not be as active as the currency strategy with an estimated 1 trade a week.  Results will be documented here.

 

Twitter: @LimitUpTrading
Twitter: @RobTerp